Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War

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Over the last two decades, international actors have devoted increasing attention to managing intrastate conflicts. A substantial body of research has suggested that various efforts can make significant contributions to the resolution of such conflict. Despite these efforts, however, a large number of civil wars are still fought.
Analysis by KYLE BEARDSLEY, DAVID E. CUNNINGHAM, and PETER B. WHITE suggests that the positive effect of international efforts is not limited to conflict resolution. Rather, peacekeeping and mediation can actually reduce the level of killing in ongoing wars as well as resolve them, they write in an article titled ‘Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War’ published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Although previous work has explored the relationship between peacekeeping and conflict severity, the authors state that their study is the first to show a violence-reducing effect of mediation and the first to examine the interactive effect of mediation and peacekeeping.
“These findings are important because they suggest that international actions have a violence-reducing effect that has, with the exception of peacekeeping, to date been unrecognized,” the authors contend. Many of the conflicts that receive the most international attention – such as those in Syria and South Sudan – are incredibly bloody, and the level of violence can suggest that the ability of third parties to do anything constructive is limited. “Our analyses suggest, however, that, on average, civil wars would be even bloodier without international efforts,” the authors state.
The presence of severe armed conflict in the face of international intervention does not necessarily represent the categorical failure of international efforts.
The results suggest that scholars and policy makers evaluating the success of international efforts should use a broader metric than conflict resolution. To fully gauge the effectiveness of third-party efforts, researchers should examine the severity of violence as well. This is particularly important in the context of analyses that suggest that strategies such as peacekeeping and mediation may lead to a short-term decrease in hostilities at the cost of potential conflict recurrence. This trade-off may very well exist but determining whether these strategies are still worthwhile requires fully understanding the impact they have on the dynamics of conflict, such as the level of violence.
The authors state that their analysis also suggests that efficacy in third-party efforts requires the investment of significant resources. “We did not find much of a pacifying effect for indirect mediation. Rather, direct mediation and concurrent deployments of UN peacekeepers – both of which require substantial attention and commitment –have the largest effects. Much of the discussion of conflict management efforts by states and bodies such as the UN focuses on the costs, and these costs can be substantial. We show that the benefits can be as well.”